Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at 幻想遊戲世界店冠賽
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +19.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blade of Creation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Confidant's Oath | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brusque Neige | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rivulet Adjutant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flowing Oubli | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |